http://www.optimalfinancial.biz en-gb optimalfinancial.biz 2012-5-3T00:00:00Z optimalfinancial.biz http://www.optimalfinancial.biz/page8.htm#117571 Risk and probability are factors that we deal with on a daily basis. Our daily behaviour from the moment we get up and make our way to work involves numerous generally low level assessments of risks and we adapt our behaviour accordingly. Our reaction to a car moving at speed towards us is entirely different to a report of a meteor heading towards earth. While the end result of both could be disastrous the probability of the former at the point in time when the headlights are heading towards you is much greater. So we understand simple risk and probability from day to day experience dont we I recently came across the Monty Hall paradox which suggests otherwise. Monty Hall hosted a game show in the 1950s where a contestant had to choose one of three doors. Behind two of the doors there was no prize but behind the third door was a car. After the contestant had chosen a door Monty Hall would open one of the two remaining doors to reveal nothing. He would then ask the contestant whether t... 2012-4-30 20:57:31 http://www.optimalfinancial.biz/page8.htm#116001 Good business modelling puts the power to vary assumptions in the hands of the user. The user will not always know which variables they want to change before the model is developed sometimes because the model itself prompts the user to extend their anaysis ansd sometimes due to changes in external factors. Understanding the relationship between events is an important element to creating this flexibility. Where an event has a assumed date there may be income and expenditure implications before and after that date. For example when a company opens a new branch there may be legal costs and property agents fees prior to the lease start date and there may be fit out costs after the lease start date. There may be regulatory or licencing issues to deal with before the branch can open or there may be marketing activities and costs to incur in the period leading up to the opening date. Sales are also likely to be a period of time after the rental start date. As is often the case Excel offe... 2012-3-31 23:43:02 http://www.optimalfinancial.biz/page8.htm#113555 Its an old interview trick to ask a candidate to identify their greatest strengths in order to identify potential weaknesses. Being focussed is great unless it really means being too single minded to be a team player being flexible and open minded is also good unless it translates into indecisiveness and being creative is also a positive attribute unless it results in an inability to deal with day to day tasks. So it is with Excel. It would turn up at interview supremely confident about its flexibility its capacity for analysis its reporting skills its ability to perform routine functions as well as medium and long term strategic planning. It has a CV that includes every blue chip company. Its undoubtedly a formidable skill set. Excel relaxes in its seat waiting to hear the words Youre hired. The interviewer clears his throat. Thats great Excel but I dont see anything on your CV about these horror stories that European Spreadsheet Risks Interest Group have collated www.eusprig.orgho... 2012-2-28 23:30:04 http://www.optimalfinancial.biz/page8.htm#112905 My experience of spreadsheets goes way back to the pre Excel days of the mid 1980s. Lotus 123 was new graphics were monocrome and the mouse was being talked about in almost scifi langauage as a future productivity aid. Having heard the buzz about Lotus I was keen to understand what it could offer. I was working for a offshore survey company who provided staff and equipment for rig moves and seismic surveys and had implemented its first computerised accounting system and developed a management accounts pack. Much of the activity behind the accounting sysytem was manual. Quotes bookings and personnelasset chargaeability records were maintained manually. The opportunities for improved decision making and better management information were immense. One of these opportunities came in the form of the largest contract that the company had been invited to tender for. Creating my first ever fianncial model for this contract made clear the potential of spreadsheets and amazed the directors whe... 2012-1-27 17:19:44